Spatial transmission of Swine Vesicular Disease virus in the 2006-2007 epidemic in Lombardy.

ABSTRACT: In 2006 and 2007 pig farming in the region of Lombardy, in the north of Italy, was struck by an epidemic of Swine Vesicular Disease virus (SVDV). In fact this epidemic could be viewed as consisting of two sub-epidemics, as the reported outbreaks occurred in two separate time periods. These periods differed in terms of the provinces or municipalities that were affected and also in terms of the timing of implementation of movement restrictions. Here we use a simple mathematical model to analyse the epidemic data, quantifying between-farm transmission probability as a function of between-farm distance. The results show that the distance dependence of between-farm transmission differs between the two periods. In the first period transmission over relatively long distances occurred with higher

SUBMITTER: Nassuato C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3647039 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature