Successes and shortcomings of polio eradication: a transmission modeling analysis.

ABSTRACT: Polio eradication is on the cusp of success, with only a few regions still maintaining transmission. Improving our understanding of why some regions have been successful and others have not will help with both global eradication of polio and development of more effective vaccination strategies for other pathogens. To examine the past 25 years of eradication efforts, we constructed a transmission model for wild poliovirus that incorporates waning immunity (which affects both infection risk and transmissibility of any resulting infection), age-mediated vaccination rates, and transmission of oral polio vaccine. The model produces results consistent with the 4 country categories defined by the Global Polio Eradication Program: elimination with no subsequent outbreaks; elimination with subseque

SUBMITTER: Mayer BT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3664334 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature