Expert prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I (MUTT I) using expert opinion as a prior belief.

Methods

MUTT I was a randomized clinical trial comparing topical natamycin or voriconazole for treating filamentous fungal keratitis. A questionnaire elicited expert opinion on the best treatment of fungal keratitis before MUTT I results were available. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the questionnaire data as a prior belief and the MUTT I primary outcome (3-month visual acuity) by frequentist analysis as a likelihood.

Results

Corneal experts had a 41.1% prior belief that natamycin improved 3-month visual acuity compared with voriconazole. The Bayesian analysis found a 98.4% belief for natamycin treatment compared with voriconazole tre

SUBMITTER: Sun CQ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3684218 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature