Quantifying policy options for reducing future coronary heart disease mortality in England: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios.

Methods and results

Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaini

SUBMITTER: Scholes S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3723729 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature