Phenological indices of avian reproduction: cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales.

ABSTRACT: Climate change-induced shifts in phenology have important demographic consequences, and are frequently used to assess species' sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, developing accurate phenological predictions is an important step in modeling species' responses to climate change. The ability of such phenological models to predict effects at larger spatial and temporal scales has rarely been assessed. It is also not clear whether the most frequently used phenological index, namely the average date of a phenological event across a population, adequately captures phenological shifts in the distribution of events across the season. We use the long-tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus (Fig. 1) as a case study to explore these issues. We use an intensive 17-year local study to model mean breeding

SUBMITTER: Gullett P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3728930 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature