Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

ABSTRACT: Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with art

SUBMITTER: Gonzalez EJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3728964 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature