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The transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus among livestock in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic vector-borne infection and causes a potentially severe disease. Many mammals are susceptible to infection including important livestock species. Although currently confined to Africa and the near-East, this disease causes concern in countries in temperate climates where both hosts and potential vectors are present, such as the Netherlands. Currently, an assessment of the probability of an outbreak occurring in this country is missing. To evaluate the transmission potential of RVFV, a mathematical model was developed and used to determine the initial growth and the Floquet ratio, which are indicators of the probability of an outbreak and of persistence in a periodic changing environment caused by seasonality. We show that several areas of the Netherlands have a high transmission potential and risk of persistence of the infection. Counter-intuitively, these are the sparsely populated livestock areas, due to the high vector-host ratios in these areas. Culex pipiens s.l. is found to be the main driver of the spread and persistence, because it is by far the most abundant mosquito. Our investigation underscores the importance to determine the vector competence of this mosquito species for RVFV and its host preference.

SUBMITTER: Fischer EA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3733972 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus among livestock in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

Fischer Egil A J EA Boender Gert-Jan GJ Nodelijk Gonnie G de Koeijer Aline A AA van Roermund Herman J W HJ

Veterinary research 20130722

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic vector-borne infection and causes a potentially severe disease. Many mammals are susceptible to infection including important livestock species. Although currently confined to Africa and the near-East, this disease causes concern in countries in temperate climates where both hosts and potential vectors are present, such as the Netherlands. Currently, an assessment of the probability of an outbreak occurring in this country is missing. To evaluate the ...[more]

PMID: 23876054

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Project description:BackgroundThe impacts of vaccination on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) have not been evaluated. We have developed a RVFV transmission model comprising two hosts-cattle as a separate host and sheep and goats as one combined host (herein after referred to as sheep)-and two vectors-Aedes species (spp) and Culex spp-and used it to predict the impacts of: (1) reactive vaccination implemented at various levels of coverage at pre-determined time points, (2) targeted vaccination involving either of the two host species, and (3) a periodic vaccination implemented biannually or annually before an outbreak.Methodology/principal findingsThe model comprises coupled vector and host modules where the dynamics of vectors and hosts are described using a system of difference equations. Vector populations are structured into egg, larva, pupa and adult stages and the latter stage is further categorized into three infection categories: susceptible, exposed and infectious mosquitoes. The survival rates of the immature stages (egg, larva and pupa) are dependent on rainfall densities extracted from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) for a Rift Valley fever (RVF) endemic site in Kenya over a period of 1827 days. The host populations are structured into four age classes comprising young, weaners, yearlings and adults and four infection categories including susceptible, exposed, infectious, and immune categories. The model reproduces the 2006/2007 RVF outbreak reported in empirical surveys in the target area and other seasonal transmission events that are perceived to occur during the wet seasons. Mass reactive vaccination strategies greatly reduce the potential for a major outbreak. The results also suggest that the effectiveness of vaccination can be enhanced by increasing the vaccination coverage, targeting vaccination on cattle given that this species plays a major role in the transmission of the virus, and using both periodic and reactive vaccination strategies.Conclusion/significanceReactive vaccination can be effective in mitigating the impacts of RVF outbreaks but practically, it is not always possible to have this measure implemented satisfactorily due to the rapid onset and evolution of RVF epidemics. This analysis demonstrates that both periodic and reactive vaccination ought to be used strategically to effectively control the disease.

Project description:Quantifying the variation of pathogens' life history traits in multiple host systems is crucial to understand their transmission dynamics. It is particularly important for arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), which are prone to infecting several species of vertebrate hosts. Here, we focus on how host-pathogen interactions determine the ability of host species to transmit a virus to susceptible vectors upon a potentially infectious contact. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral, vector-borne, zoonotic disease, chosen as a case study. The relative contributions of livestock species to RVFV transmission has not been previously quantified. To estimate their potential to transmit the virus over the course of their infection, we 1) fitted a within-host model to viral RNA and infectious virus measures, obtained daily from infected lambs, calves, and young goats, 2) estimated the relationship between vertebrate host infectious titers and probability to infect mosquitoes, and 3) estimated the net infectiousness of each host species over the duration of their infectious periods, taking into account different survival outcomes for lambs. Our results indicate that the efficiency of viral replication, along with the lifespan of infectious particles, could be sources of heterogeneity between hosts. Given available data on RVFV competent vectors, we found that, for similar infectious titers, infection rates in the Aedes genus were on average higher than in the Culex genus. Consequently, for Aedes-mediated infections, we estimated the net infectiousness of lambs to be 2.93 (median) and 3.65 times higher than that of calves and goats, respectively. In lambs, we estimated the overall infectiousness to be 1.93 times higher in individuals which eventually died from the infection than in those recovering. Beyond infectiousness, the relative contributions of host species to transmission depend on local ecological factors, including relative abundances and vector host-feeding preferences. Quantifying these contributions will ultimately help design efficient, targeted, surveillance and vaccination strategies.

Project description:BackgroundIn recent years, evidence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission during inter-epidemic periods in parts of Africa has increasingly been reported. The inter-epidemic transmissions generally pass undetected where there is no surveillance in the livestock or human populations. We studied the presence of and the determinants for inter-epidemic RVF transmission in an area experiencing annual flooding in southern Tanzania.MethodologyA cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted in randomly selected cattle, sheep and goats in the Kilombero river valley from May to August 2011, approximately four years after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak in Tanzania. The exposure status to RVF virus (RVFV) was determined using two commercial ELISA kits, detecting IgM and IgG antibodies in serum. Information about determinants was obtained through structured interviews with herd owners.FindingsAn overall seroprevalence of 11.3% (n = 1680) was recorded; 5.5% in animals born after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak and 22.7% in animals present during the outbreak. There was a linear increase in prevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts. Nine inhibition-ELISA positive samples were also positive for RVFV IgM antibodies indicating a recent infection. The spatial distribution of seroprevalence exhibited a few hotspots. The sex difference in seroprevalence in animals born after the previous epidemic was not significant (6.1% vs. 4.6% for females and males respectively, p = 0.158) whereas it was significant in animals present during the outbreak (26.0% vs. 7.8% for females and males respectively, p<0.001). Animals living >15 km from the flood plain were more likely to have antibodies than those living <5 km (OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.04-3.56). Species, breed, herd composition, grazing practices and altitude were not associated with seropositivity.ConclusionThese findings indicate post-epidemic transmission of RVFV in the study area. The linear increase in seroprevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts implies a constant exposure and presence of active foci transmission preceding the survey.

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The transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus among livestock in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

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The transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus among livestock in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

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