Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England.

ABSTRACT: In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced two waves of infection, the first in the late spring and the second in the autumn. Given the low level of susceptibility to the pandemic virus expected to be remaining in the population after the second wave, it was a surprise that a substantial third epidemic occurred in the UK population between November 2010 and February 2011, despite no evidence for any significant antigenic evolution of the pandemic virus. Here, we use a mathematical model of influenza transmission embedded within a Bayesian synthesis inferential framework to jointly analyze syndromic, virological, and serological surveillance data collected in England in 2009-2011 and thereby assess epidemiological mechanisms which might have generated the third wave. We find

SUBMITTER: Dorigatti I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3746905 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature