Predicting life expectancy for community-dwelling older adults from Medicare claims data.

ABSTRACT: Estimates of life expectancy are useful in assessing whether different prevention strategies are appropriate in different populations. We developed sex-specific Cox proportional-hazard models that use Medicare claims data to predict life expectancy and risk of death at up to 10 years for older adults. We identified a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries 66-90 years of age from the 5% Medicare claims data in 2000 (n = 1,137,311) and tracked each subject's vital status until December 31, 2009. Subjects were split randomly into training and validation samples. Models were developed from the training sample and validated by comparison of predicted to actual survival in the validation sample. The C statistics for the models including predictors of age and Elixhauser comorbidities were 0.76-0.79 for

SUBMITTER: Tan A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3775541 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature