Mapping spread and risk of avian influenza A (H7N9) in China.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of human infections with an emerging avian influenza A (H7N9) virus occurred in China in early 2013. It remains unknown what and how the underlying risk factors were involved in the bird-to-human cross-species transmission. To illustrate the dynamics of viral spread, we created a thematic map displaying the distribution of affected counties and plotted epidemic curves for the three most affected provinces and the whole country. We then collected data of agro-ecological, environmental and meteorological factors at the county level, and used boosted regression tree (BRT) models to examine the relative contribution of each factor and map the probability of occurrence of human H7N9 infection. We found that live poultry markets, human population density, irrigated croplands, built-

SUBMITTER: Fang LQ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3784030 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature