Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing.

ABSTRACT: Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions t

SUBMITTER: Diffenbaugh NS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3799355 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature