Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010-2030.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although diabetes is one of the most costly and rapidly increasing serious chronic diseases worldwide, the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence has not been determined.

Methods

Using a dynamic model that incorporates national data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, migration, mortality rates, and intervention effectiveness, we project the effect of five hypothetical prevention policies on future US diabetes rates through 2030: 1) no diabetes prevention strategy; 2) a "high-risk" strategy, wherein adults with both impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting plasma glucose of 100-124 mg/dl) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour post-load glucose of 141-199 mg/dl) receive structured lifestyle intervention; 3) a "moderate-risk" strategy, where

SUBMITTER: Gregg EW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3853008 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature