Population-level differences in disease transmission: a Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics.

ABSTRACT: Estimates of a disease's basic reproductive rate R0 play a central role in understanding outbreaks and planning intervention strategies. In many calculations of R0, a simplifying assumption is that different host populations have effectively identical transmission rates. This assumption can lead to an underestimate of the overall uncertainty associated with R0, which, due to the non-linearity of epidemic processes, may result in a mis-estimate of epidemic intensity and miscalculated expenditures associated with public-health interventions. In this paper, we utilize a Bayesian method for quantifying the overall uncertainty arising from differences in population-specific basic reproductive rates. Using this method, we fit spatial and non-spatial susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR)

SUBMITTER: Elderd BD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3869526 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature