An IDEA for short term outbreak projection: nearcasting using the basic reproduction number.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth.

Methodology

The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g.,

SUBMITTER: Fisman DN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3877403 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature