The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the age composition of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage is rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Based on the effect of ART on survival of HIV-infected people and HIV transmission, the age composition of the HIV epidemic in the region is expected to change in the coming decades. We quantify the change in the age composition of HIV-infected people in all countries in SSA.

Methods

We used STDSIM, a stochastic microsimulation model, and developed an approach to represent HIV prevalence and treatment coverage in 43 countries in SSA, using publicly available data. We predict future trends in HIV prevalence and total number of HIV-infected people aged 15-49 years and 50 years or older for different ART coverage levels.

Results

We show that, if treatment coverage conti

SUBMITTER: Hontelez JA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3886374 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature