Predicting the impact of vaccination on the transmission dynamics of typhoid in South Asia: a mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed.

Methodology/principal findings

We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000-2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic

SUBMITTER: Pitzer VE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3886927 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature