Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends.

Methods and findings

The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared

SUBMITTER: Thorolfsdottir RB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3897505 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature