Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon.

ABSTRACT: Projections of climate change are emerging to play major roles in many applications. However, assessing reliability of climate change projections, especially at regional scales, remains a major challenge. An important question is the degree of progress made since the earlier IPCC simulations (CMIP3) to the latest, recently completed CMIP5. We consider the continental Indian monsoon as an example and apply a hierarchical approach for assessing reliability, using the accuracy in simulating the historical trend as the primary criterion. While the scope has increased in CMIP5, there is essentially no improvement in skill in projections since CMIP3 in terms of reliability (confidence). Thus, it may be necessary to consider acceptable models for specific assessment rather than simple ensemble. A

SUBMITTER: Ramesh KV 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3921638 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature