Dataset Information

The incidence of West Nile disease in Russia in relation to climatic and environmental factors.

ABSTRACT: Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010-2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent) by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and/or January, depending on the region and type of model). WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence.

SUBMITTER: Platonov AE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3945534 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The incidence of West Nile disease in Russia in relation to climatic and environmental factors.

Platonov Alexander E AE Tolpin Vladimir A VA Gridneva Kristina A KA Titkov Anton V AV Platonova Olga V OV Kolyasnikova Nadezhda M NM Busani Luca L Rezza Giovanni G

International journal of environmental research and public health 20140123 2

Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010-2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important ...[more]

PMID: 24464233

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Project description:BackgroundIn Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution.MethodsWe use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively.FindingsOur model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends.InterpretationOur AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe.FundingThe work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

Project description:BackgroundWest Nile Virus (WNV) exemplifies the complexities of managing vector-borne diseases, expanding globally due to human activities and ecological changes. Originating from Africa and transmitted by Culex mosquitoes, WNV is now reported across multiple continents. The aim of this study was to identify the environmental, ecological, and individual factors influencing WNV transmission.MethodsAn umbrella review was conducted. Comprehensive searches were performed in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, and LILACS. Inclusion criteria were reviews involving WNV transmission agents (reservoirs, vectors, hosts) and associative analyses between environmental, ecological, or individual factors and WNV transmission. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed using templates and the AMSTAR 2 tool.ResultsFrom 404 retrieved studies, 23 systematic reviews and meta-analyses were included. Almost 70 % were low or critically low quality. The co-occurrence network highlighted emerging research on climate change and environmental factors. Temperature, precipitation, and land use significantly influence WNV transmission. Warmer temperatures enhance mosquito populations and viral replication, while extreme weather events like droughts increase mosquito-human contact. Climate change significantly contributes to WNV dynamics by altering temperature and precipitation patterns, enhancing vector proliferation, and extending transmission seasons. Ecological factors such as higher avian diversity, vegetation indexes, and distribution of mosquito species can impact WNV transmission significantly. Education and income levels influence preventive behaviors and infection risk, with lower socioeconomic status linked to higher WNV risk. Certain occupational groups are also at elevated risk of WNV infection.ConclusionEnvironmental factors like temperature and precipitation critically affect WNV transmission by influencing mosquito behavior and avian reservoir dynamics. Socio-economic status and education levels significantly impact individual preventive behaviors and infection risk. Multifactorial influences on infection risk make necessary integrated surveillance systems and public health strategies. Longitudinal studies with One Health approaches are necessary to better understand WNV dynamics and reduce WNV transmission.

Dataset Information

The incidence of West Nile disease in Russia in relation to climatic and environmental factors.

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The incidence of West Nile disease in Russia in relation to climatic and environmental factors.

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