Modeling the impact on HIV incidence of combination prevention strategies among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To project the HIV/AIDS epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) under different combinations of HIV testing and linkage to care (TLC) interventions including antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Beijing, China.

Design

Mathematical modeling.

Methods

Using a mathematical model to fit prevalence estimates from 2000-2010, we projected trends in HIV prevalence and incidence during 2011-2020 under five scenarios: (S1) current intervention levels by averaging 2000-2010 coverage; (S2) increased ART coverage with current TLC; (S3) increased TLC/ART coverage; (S4) increased condom use; and (S5) increased TLC/ART plus increased condom use.

Results

The basic reproduction number based upon the current level of interventions is significantly higher than 1 (R0 =

SUBMITTER: Lou J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3953201 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature