A Bayesian geostatistical Moran Curve model for estimating net changes of tsetse populations in Zambia.

ABSTRACT: For the first time a Bayesian geostatistical version of the Moran Curve, a logarithmic form of the Ricker stock recruitment curve, is proposed that is able to give an estimate of net change in population demographic rates considering components such as fertility and density dependent and density independent mortalities. The method is applied to spatio-temporally referenced count data of tsetse flies obtained from fly-rounds. The model is a linear regression with three components: population rate of change estimated from the Moran curve, an explicit spatio-temporal covariance, and the observation error optimised within a Bayesian framework. The model was applied to the three main climate seasons of Zambia (rainy--January to April, cold-dry--May to August, and hot-dry--September to December)

SUBMITTER: Sedda L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3995969 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature