Ensemble distribution models in conservation prioritization: from consensus predictions to consensus reserve networks.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

Conservation planning exercises increasingly rely on species distributions predicted either from one particular statistical model or, more recently, from an ensemble of models (i.e. ensemble forecasting). However, it has not yet been explored how different ways of summarizing ensemble predictions affect conservation planning outcomes. We evaluate these effects and compare commonplace consensus methods, applied before the conservation prioritization phase, to a novel method that applies consensus after reserve selection.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We used an ensemble of predicted distributions of 146 Western Palaearctic bird species in alternative ways: four different consensus methods, as well as distributions discounted with variability, were used to produce inputs

SUBMITTER: Meller L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4003394 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature