Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.

Methods

We used the "elicitation of expert opinions" method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a De

SUBMITTER: Cousien A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4003824 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature