Quantifying extinction probabilities from sighting records: inference and uncertainties.

ABSTRACT: Methods are needed to estimate the probability that a population is extinct, whether to underpin decisions regarding the continuation of a invasive species eradication program, or to decide whether further searches for a rare and endangered species could be warranted. Current models for inferring extinction probability based on sighting data typically assume a constant or declining sighting rate. We develop methods to analyse these models in a Bayesian framework to estimate detection and survival probabilities of a population conditional on sighting data. We note, however, that the assumption of a constant or declining sighting rate may be hard to justify, especially for incursions of invasive species with potentially positive population growth rates. We therefore explored introducing addi

SUBMITTER: Caley P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4005750 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature