Estimating the basic reproduction number for single-strain dengue fever epidemics.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Dengue, an infectious tropical disease, has recently emerged as one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in the world. We perform a retrospective analysis of the 2011 dengue fever epidemic in Pakistan in order to assess the transmissibility of the disease. We obtain estimates of the basic reproduction number R 0 from epidemic data using different methodologies applied to different epidemic models in order to evaluate the robustness of our estimate.

Results

We first estimate model parameters by fitting a deterministic ODE vector-host model for the transmission dynamics of single-strain dengue to the epidemic data, using both a basic ordinary least squares (OLS) as well as a generalized least squares (GLS) scheme. Moreover, we perform the same analysi

SUBMITTER: Khan A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4021574 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature