Impact of viral drift on vaccination dynamics and patterns of seasonal influenza.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Much research has been devoted to the determination of optimal vaccination strategies for seasonal influenza epidemics. However, less attention has been paid to whether this optimization can be achieved within the context of viral drift.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model that links different intra-seasonal dynamics of vaccination and infection to investigate the effect of viral drift on optimal vaccination for minimizing the total number of infections. The model was computationally implemented using a seasonal force of infection, with estimated parameters from the published literature.

Results

Simulation results show that the pattern of large seasonal epidemics is strongly correlated with the duration of specific cross-protection immunity induced by

SUBMITTER: Xiao Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4028866 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature