Development, calibration and performance of an HIV transmission model incorporating natural history and behavioral patterns: application in South Africa.

ABSTRACT: Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values

SUBMITTER: McCormick AW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4035281 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature