Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased five-fold in the United States since 1975. The aim of our study was to estimate future U.S. EAC incidence and mortality and to shed light on the potential drivers in the disease process that are conduits for the dramatic increase in EAC incidence.

Methods

A consortium of three research groups calibrated independent mathematical models to clinical and epidemiologic data including EAC incidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 9) registry from 1975 to 2010. We then used a comparative modeling approach to project EAC incidence and mortality to year 2030.

Results

Importantly, all three models identified birth cohort trends affecting cancer progression as a major driver of t

SUBMITTER: Kong CY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4048738 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature