Estimating predicted probabilities from logistic regression: different methods correspond to different target populations.

ABSTRACT:

Background

We review three common methods to estimate predicted probabilities following confounder-adjusted logistic regression: marginal standardization (predicted probabilities summed to a weighted average reflecting the confounder distribution in the target population); prediction at the modes (conditional predicted probabilities calculated by setting each confounder to its modal value); and prediction at the means (predicted probabilities calculated by setting each confounder to its mean value). That each method corresponds to a different target population is underappreciated in practice. Specifically, prediction at the means is often incorrectly interpreted as estimating average probabilities for the overall study population, and furthermore yields nonsensical estimates in the

SUBMITTER: Muller CJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4052139 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature