Assessing the Public Health impact of HIV interventions: the critical role of demographics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Dimitrov D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4053692 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Assessing the Public Health impact of HIV interventions: the critical role of demographics.
Dimitrov Dobromir D Kuang Yang Y Mâsse Benoît R BR
Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 20140601 2
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Project description:BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on transmission dynamics and effectiveness of control measures for influenza in confined settings. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the transmission dynamics of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A outbreak aboard a Peruvian Navy ship and quantify the effectiveness of the implemented control measures. METHODS: We used surveillance data and a simple stochastic epidemic model to characterize and evaluate the effectiveness of control interventions implemented during an outbreak of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A aboard a Peruvian Navy ship. RESULTS: The serological attack rate for the outbreak was 49·1%, with younger cadets and low-ranking officers at greater risk of infection than older, higher-ranking officers. Our transmission model yielded a good fit to the daily time series of new influenza cases by date of symptom onset. We estimated a reduction of 54·4% in the reproduction number during the period of intense control interventions. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that the patient isolation strategy and other control measures put in place during the outbreak reduced the infectiousness of isolated individuals by 86·7%. Our findings support that early implementation of control interventions can limit the spread of influenza epidemics in confined settings.
| S-EPMC4181484 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundEstimation of temporal changes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission patterns can help to elucidate the impact of preventive strategies and public health policies.MethodsPortuguese HIV-1 subtype B and G pol genetic sequences were appended to global reference data sets to identify country-specific transmission clades. Bayesian birth-death models were used to estimate subtype-specific effective reproductive numbers (Re). Discrete trait analysis (DTA) was used to quantify mixing among transmission groups.ResultsWe identified 5 subtype B Portuguese clades (26-79 sequences) and a large monophyletic subtype G Portuguese clade (236 sequences). We estimated that major shifts in HIV-1 transmission occurred around 1999 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 1998-2000) and 2000 (95% BCI, 1998-2001) for subtypes B and G, respectively. For subtype B, Re dropped from 1.91 (95% BCI, 1.73-2.09) to 0.62 (95% BCI,.52-.72). For subtype G, Re decreased from 1.49 (95% BCI, 1.39-1.59) to 0.72 (95% BCI, .63-.8). The DTA suggests that people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexuals were the source of most (>80%) virus lineage transitions for subtypes G and B, respectively.ConclusionsThe estimated declines in Re coincide with the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy and the scale-up of harm reduction for PWID. Inferred transmission events across transmission groups emphasize the importance of prevention efforts for bridging populations.
| S-EPMC6581889 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReal-time digital mental health interventions, primarily enabled by smartphone technology offer continuous, personalised support, that adapts in response to the changing needs of individuals. Despite being prominently explored in populations with psychiatric disorders, there remains a notable gap in the systematic analysis of demographic characteristics, as well as the foundational design decisions or rules that underpin the personalisation of these interventions.Objectives(a) Identifying the prevalent design decisions to enable personalisation within real-time digital mental health interventions, (b) the influence of these design decisions on the clinical outcomes of the interventions, and (c) the demographic characteristics of populations with psychiatric disorders targeted by real-time digital health interventions.MethodsFollowing PRISMA (preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses) guidelines, a systematic literature review was conducted of peer-reviewed literature focusing on real-time digital interventions in populations with clinically diagnosed psychiatric disorders. We undertook a narrative synthesis to derive the demographics and personalisation design decisions of the interventions and conducted a pooled meta-analysis to evaluate clinical outcomes.ResultsInterventions predominantly targeted female and Caucasian demographics, yielding modest clinical improvements. Our analysis identified nine critical personalisation design decisions concerning measurement, intervention, and interactions with health professional with varying influence on clinical outcomes.ConclusionUnderstanding the complex nuances of design decisions that shape real-time digital health interventions, as well as identifying which patient demographics benefit most, is fundamental for their effective clinical impact and safe use.Prospero registrationPROSPERO CRD42020161663.
| S-EPMC11648022 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To assess the combined role of anti-viral monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and vaccines in reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and mortality in the United States, an agent-based model was developed that accounted for social contacts, movement/travel, disease progression, and viral shedding. The model was calibrated to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality between October 2020 and April 2021 (aggressive pandemic phase), and projected an extended outlook to estimate mortality during a less aggressive phase (April-August 2021). Simulated scenarios evaluated mAbs for averting infections and deaths in addition to vaccines and aggregated non-pharmaceutical interventions. Scenarios included mAbs as a treatment of COVID-19 and for passive immunity for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) during a period when variants were susceptible to the mAbs. Rapid diagnostic testing paired with mAbs was evaluated as an early treatment-as-prevention strategy. Sensitivity analyses included increasing mAb supply and vaccine rollout. Allocation of mAbs for use only as PEP averted up to 14% more infections than vaccine alone, and targeting individuals ≥ 65 years averted up to 37% more deaths. Rapid testing for earlier diagnosis and mAb use amplified these benefits. Doubling the mAb supply further reduced infections and mortality. mAbs provided benefits even as proportion of the immunized population increased. Model projections estimated that ~ 42% of expected deaths between April and August 2021 could be averted. Assuming sensitivity to mAbs, their use as early treatment and PEP in addition to vaccines would substantially reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission and mortality even as vaccination increases and mortality decreases. These results provide a template for informing public health policy for future pandemic preparedness.
| S-EPMC9538838 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo characterize the impact of public health interventions on the volume and characteristics of admissions to the PICU.DesignMulticenter retrospective cohort study.SettingSix U.S. referral PICUs during February 15, 2020-May 14, 2020, compared with the same months during 2017-2019 (baseline).PatientsPICU admissions excluding admissions for illnesses due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and readmissions during the same hospitalization.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsPrimary outcome was admission volumes during the period of stay-at-home orders (March 15, 2020-May 14, 2020) compared with baseline. Secondary outcomes were hospitalization characteristics including advanced support (e.g., invasive mechanical ventilation), PICU and hospital lengths of stay, and mortality. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to compare patient and admission characteristics during the stay-at-home orders period to baseline. We evaluated 7,960 admissions including 1,327 during March 15, 2020-May 14, 2020. Daily admissions and patients days were lower during the period of stay-at-home orders compared with baseline: median admissions 21 (interquartile range, 17-25) versus 36 (interquartile range, 30-42) (p < 0.001) and median patient days 93.0 (interquartile range, 55.9-136.7) versus 143.6 (interquartile range, 108.5-189.2) (p < 0.001). Admissions during the period of stay-at-home orders were less common in young children and for respiratory and infectious illnesses and more common for poisonings, endocrinopathies and for children with race/ethnicity categorized as other/unspecified. There were no differences in hospitalization characteristics except fewer patients received noninvasive ventilation during the period of stay-at-home orders.ConclusionsReductions in PICU admissions suggest that much of pediatric critical illness in younger children and for respiratory and infectious illnesses may be preventable through targeted public health strategies.
| S-EPMC8594504 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this article, we statistically examine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by the national governments of Greece and Cyprus during 2020 to (a) limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and (b) mitigate the economic fallout brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. Applying a modified health belief model, we hypothesize that behavioral outcomes at the policy level are a function of NPIs, perceived severity, and social context. We employ a Prais-Winsten estimation in 2-week averages and report panel-corrected standard errors to find that NPIs have clear, yet differential, effects on public health and the economy in terms of statistical significance and time lags. The study provides a critical framework to inform future interventions during emerging pandemics.
| S-EPMC9349912 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Disease tolerance is a defense strategy against infections that aims at maintaining host health even at high pathogen replication or load. Tolerance mechanisms are currently intensively studied with the long-term goal of exploiting them therapeutically. Because tolerance-based treatment imposes less selective pressure on the pathogen it has been hypothesised to be "evolution-proof". However, the primary public health goal is to reduce the incidence and mortality associated with a disease. From this perspective, tolerance-based treatment bears the risk of increasing the prevalence of the disease, which may lead to increased mortality. We assessed the promise of tolerance-based treatment strategies using mathematical models. Conventional treatment was implemented as an increased recovery rate, while tolerance-based treatment was assumed to reduce the disease-related mortality of infected hosts without affecting recovery. We investigated the endemic phase of two types of infections: acute and chronic. Additionally, we considered the effect of pathogen resistance against conventional treatment. We show that, for low coverage of tolerance-based treatment, chronic infections can cause even more deaths than without treatment. Overall, we found that conventional treatment always outperforms tolerance-based treatment, even when we allow the emergence of pathogen resistance. Our results cast doubt on the potential benefit of tolerance-based over conventional treatment. Any clinical application of tolerance-based treatment of infectious diseases has to consider the associated detrimental epidemiological feedback.
| S-EPMC5955582 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.MethodsA deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20-79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.ResultsAll intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8-46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.ConclusionsImplementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.
| S-EPMC10315912 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Climate intervention technologies such as carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering are becoming more actively considered as solutions to global warming. The demographic aspects of the public serve as a core determinant of social vulnerability and the ability for people to cope with, or fail to cope with, exposure to heat waves, air pollution, or disruptions in access to modern energy services. This study examines public preferences for 10 different climate interventions utilizing an original, large-scale, cross-country set of nationally representative surveys in 30 countries. It focuses intently on the demographic dimensions of gender, youth and age, poverty, and income as well as intersections and interactions between these categories. We find that support for the more engineered forms of carbon removal decreases with age. Gender has little effect overall. Those in poverty and the Global South are nearly universally more supportive of climate interventions of various types.
| S-EPMC11522002 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10, Synflorix) was introduced into the Dutch pediatric national immunization program (NIP) starting in 2011. However, there is substantial pneumococcal disease burden due to increases in non-PCV10 covered serotypes. Higher-valent vaccines for pediatrics (PCV13, PCV15, and PCV20) may alleviate much of the remaining disease burden upon implementation through broader serotype coverage. This article assesses the public health impact of different pediatric vaccination strategies (switching to PCV13, PCV15 or PCV20) versus maintaining PCV10 at different time intervals in the Netherlands.MethodsA population-based, decision-analytic model was developed using historical pneumococcal disease surveillance data to forecast future invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and otitis media (OM) cases over a 7-year period (2023-2029) under the following strategies: continued use of PCV10, switching to PCV13 in 2023, switching to PCV15 in 2023, and switching to PCV20 in 2024. Scenario analyses were performed to account for uncertainties in future serotype distributions, disease incidence reductions, and epidemiologic parameters.ResultsSwitching to PCV13 in 2023 was found to avert 26,666 cases of pneumococcal disease compared to continuing PCV10 over a 7-year period (2023-2029). Switching to PCV15 in 2023 was found to avert 30,645 pneumococcal cases over the same period. Switching to PCV20 once available in 2024 was estimated to avert 45,127 pneumococcal cases from 2024-2029. Overall conclusions were maintained after testing uncertainties.ConclusionsFor the Dutch pediatric NIP, switching to PCV13 in 2023 would be an effective strategy compared with continued use of PCV10 for averting pneumococcal disease cases. Switching to PCV20 in 2024 was estimated to avert the most pneumococcal disease cases and provide the highest protection. However, in the face of budget constraints and the undervaluation of prevention strategies, it remains challenging to implement higher valent vaccines. Further research is needed to understand the cost-effectiveness and feasibility of a sequential approach.
| S-EPMC10390433 | biostudies-literature