An HIV epidemic model based on viral load dynamics: value in assessing empirical trends in HIV virulence and community viral load.

ABSTRACT: Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL) as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.7

SUBMITTER: Herbeck JT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4063664 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature