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Oesophageal varices, schistosomiasis, and mortality among patients admitted with haematemesis in Mwanza, Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common cause of hospital admissions worldwide. Aetiologies vary by sociodemographics and geography. Retrospective studies of endoscopies in much of Africa have documented oesophageal varices as a leading cause of UGIB. Prospective studies describing outcomes and associations with clinical factors are lacking.We conducted a prospective cohort study at a referral hospital in Mwanza, Tanzania where schistosomiasis is endemic. Adults admitted with haematemesis underwent laboratory workup, schistosomiasis antigen testing and elective endoscopy, and were followed for two months for death or re-bleeding. We assessed predictors of endoscopic findings using logistic regression models, and determined prediction rules that maximised sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV).Of 124 enrolled patients, 13 died within two months (10%); active schistosomiasis prevalence was 48%. 64/91(70%) patients had oesophageal varices. We found strong associations between varices and numerous demographic or clinical findings, permitting construction of simple, high-fidelity prediction rules for oesophageal varices applicable even in rural settings. Portal vein diameter ? 13 mm or water sourced from the lake yielded sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV >90% for oesophageal varices; presence of splenomegaly or water sourced from the lake maintained sensitivity and PPV >90%.Our results guide identification of patients, via ultrasound and clinical examination, likely to have varices for whom referral for endoscopy may be life-saving. Furthermore, they support empiric anti-schistosome treatment for patients with UGIB in schistosome-endemic regions. These interventions have potential to reduce UGIB-related morbidity and mortality in Africa.

SUBMITTER: Chofle AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4065539 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Oesophageal varices, schistosomiasis, and mortality among patients admitted with haematemesis in Mwanza, Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

Chofle Awilly A AA Jaka Hyasinta H Koy Mheta M Smart Luke R LR Kabangila Rodrick R Ewings Fiona M FM Mazigo Humphrey D HD Johnson Warren D WD Fitzgerald Daniel W DW Peck Robert N RN Downs Jennifer A JA

BMC infectious diseases 20140603

<h4>Background</h4>Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common cause of hospital admissions worldwide. Aetiologies vary by sociodemographics and geography. Retrospective studies of endoscopies in much of Africa have documented oesophageal varices as a leading cause of UGIB. Prospective studies describing outcomes and associations with clinical factors are lacking.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a prospective cohort study at a referral hospital in Mwanza, Tanzania where schistosomiasis is end ...[more]

PMID: 24894393

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Project description:Background and aimThe efficacy of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score as predictor of clinical outcomes among ICU-admitted COVID-19 patients is still controversial. We aimed to assess whether SOFA-score in different time intervals could predict 28-day mortality compared with other well-acknowledged risk factors of COVID-19 mortality.MethodsThis observational prospective cohort was conducted on 1057 patients from March 2020 to March 2022 at Masih Daneshvari Hospital, Iran. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional analysis were performed to assess the hazards of SOFA-score models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were designed to estimate the predictive values.ResultsMean SOFA-score during first 96 h (HR: 3.82 [CI: 2.75-5.31]), highest SOFA-score (HR: 2.70 [CI: 1.93-3.78]), and initial SOFA-score (HR: 1.65 [CI: 1.30-2.11]) had strongest association with 28-day mortality (p < .0001). In contrast, SOFA scores at 48 and 96 h as well as Δ-SOFA: 48-0 h and Δ-SOFA: 96-0 h did not show significant correlations. Among them, merely mean SOFA-score (HR: 2.28 [CI: 2.21-3.51]; p < .001) remained as independent prognosticator on multivariate regression analysis; though having less odds of predicting value compared with age (HR: 3.81 [CI: 1.98-5.21]), hypertension (HR: 3.11 [CI: 1.26-3.81]), coronary artery disease [CAD] (HR: 2.82 [CI: 1.51-4.8]), and diabetes mellitus (HR: 2.45 [CI: 1.36-2.99]). The area under ROC (AUROC) for mean SOFA-score (0.77) and highest SOFA-score (0.71) were larger than other SOFA intervals. Calculating the first 96 h of SOFA trends, it was obtained that fatality rate was <12.3% if the score dropped, between 28.8% and 46.29% if the score remained unchanged, and >50.45% if the score increased.ConclusionTo predict the 28-day mortality among ICU-admitted COVID-19 patients, mean SOFA upon first 96 h of ICU stay is reliable; while having inadequate accuracy comparing with well-acknowledged COVID-19 mortality predictors (age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, CAD). Notably, increased SOFA levels in the course of first 96 h of ICU-admission, prognosticate at least 50% fatality regardless of initial SOFA score.

Project description:BackgroundDespite recent advances in management and preventive strategies, high rates of first line antibiotics treatment failure and case fatality for Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia (SCAP) continue to occur in children in low and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the predictors and outcome of first line antibiotics treatment failure among children under-five years of age with SCAP admitted at Bugando Medical Centre (BMC) in Mwanza, Tanzania.MethodsThe study involved under-five children admitted with SCAP, treated with first line antibiotics as recommended by WHO. Patients with treatment failure at 48 hours were shifted to second line of antibiotics treatment and followed up for 7 days. Generalized linear model was used to determine predictors of first line antibiotics treatment failure for SCAP.ResultsA total of 250 children with SCAP with a median age of 18 [IQR 9-36] months were enrolled, 8.4% had HIV infection and 28% had acute malnutrition. The percentage of first line antibiotics treatment failure for the children with SCAP was 50.4%. Predictors of first line treatment failure were; presentation with convulsion (RR 1.55; 95% CI [1.11-2.16]; p-value 0.009), central cyanosis (RR 1.55; 95% CI [1.16-2.07]; p-value 0.003), low oxygen saturation (RR 1.28; 95% CI [1.01-1.62]; p-value 0.04), abnormal chest X-ray (RR 1.71; 95% CI [1.28-2.29]; p-value <0.001), HIV infection (RR 1.80; 95% CI [1.42-2.27]; p-value 0.001), moderate acute malnutrition (RR 1.48; 95% CI [1.04-2.12]; p-value = 0.030) and severe acute malnutrition (RR 2.02; 95% CI [1.56-2.61]; p-value<0.001). Mortality in children who failed first line treatment was 4.8%.ConclusionHalf of the children with SCAP at this tertiary center had first line antibiotics treatment failure. HIV infection, acute malnutrition, low oxygen saturation, convulsions, central cyanosis, and abnormal chest X-ray were independently predictive of first line treatment failure. We recommend consideration of second line treatment and clinical trials for patients with SCAP to reduce associated morbidity and mortality.

Dataset Information

Oesophageal varices, schistosomiasis, and mortality among patients admitted with haematemesis in Mwanza, Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

Publications

Oesophageal varices, schistosomiasis, and mortality among patients admitted with haematemesis in Mwanza, Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

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