Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

ABSTRACT: The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent s

SUBMITTER: Ferguson JM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4072525 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature