The effect of increasing water temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi population dynamics: an agent-based modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

There is increasing interest in the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Little is known, however, about the likely effects of increasing water-body temperatures on transmission.

Methods

We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma and intermediate host snail life-cycles, parameterised using data from S. mansoni and Biomphalaria pfeifferi laboratory and field-based observations. Infection risk is calculated as the number of cercariae in the model, adjusted for their probability of causing infection.

Results

The number of snails in the model is approximately constant between 15-31°C. Outside this range, snail numbers drop sharply, and the snail population cannot survive outside the range 14-32°C. Mean

SUBMITTER: McCreesh N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4079709 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature