Dataset Information

Development and validation of risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

The National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) is the UK national clinical audit for in-hospital cardiac arrest. To make fair comparisons among health care providers, clinical indicators require case mix adjustment using a validated risk model. The aim of this study was to develop and validate risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in UK hospitals.

Methods

Risk models for two outcomes-return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for greater than 20min and survival to hospital discharge-were developed and validated using data for in-hospital cardiac arrests between April 2011 and March 2013. For each outcome, a full model was fitted and then simplified by testing for non-linearity, combining categories and stepwise reduction. Finally, interactions between predictors were considered. Models were assessed for discrimination, calibration and accuracy.

Results

22,479 in-hospital cardiac arrests in 143 hospitals were included (14,688 development, 7791 validation). The final risk model for ROSC>20min included: age (non-linear), sex, prior length of stay in hospital, reason for attendance, location of arrest, presenting rhythm, and interactions between presenting rhythm and location of arrest. The model for hospital survival included the same predictors, excluding sex. Both models had acceptable performance across the range of measures, although discrimination for hospital mortality exceeded that for ROSC>20min (c index 0.81 versus 0.72).

Conclusions

Validated risk models for ROSC>20min and hospital survival following in-hospital cardiac arrest have been developed. These models will strengthen comparative reporting in NCAA and support local quality improvement.

SUBMITTER: Harrison DA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4111919 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team.

Harrison David A DA Patel Krishna K Nixon Edel E Soar Jasmeet J Smith Gary B GB Gwinnutt Carl C Nolan Jerry P JP Rowan Kathryn M KM

Resuscitation 20140514 8

<h4>Aim</h4>The National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) is the UK national clinical audit for in-hospital cardiac arrest. To make fair comparisons among health care providers, clinical indicators require case mix adjustment using a validated risk model. The aim of this study was to develop and validate risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in UK hospitals.<h4>Methods</h4>Risk models for two outcomes-return of spontaneous ...[more]

PMID: 24830872

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Project description:ObjectivesInadequate self-efficacy of resuscitation team members may impair team performance, but high self-efficacy does not guarantee competence. We evaluated the relationship between individual self-efficacy and resuscitation team competence.DesignSecondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.SettingHigh-fidelity in situ in-hospital cardiac arrest simulations at seven hospitals in Utah.SubjectsMultidisciplinary cardiac arrest resuscitation team members.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsResuscitation team members completed surveys evaluating resuscitation self-efficacy (confidence in resuscitation role, difficulty thinking clearly, and concerns about committing errors) after each simulation. The primary outcome was event-level chest compression hands-on fraction greater than 75%. Secondary outcomes included other measures of resuscitation quality, advanced cardiac life support protocol adherence, and nontechnical team performance. Analyses employed the Datta-Satten rank-sum method to account for response clustering within simulation events. Of 923 participants in 76 analyzable simulations, 612 (66%) submitted complete surveys and 33 (43%) resuscitation teams achieved hands-on fraction greater than 75%. Event-level chest compression hands-on fraction greater than 75% versus less than or equal to 75% was not associated with the percentage of resuscitation team members reporting confidence in their team role (n = 213 [74%] vs. n = 251 [77%], respectively, p = 0.18), lack of difficulty thinking clearly (n = 186 [65%] vs. n = 214 [66%], p = 0.92), or lack of worry about making errors (n = 155 [54%] vs. n = 180 [55%], p = 0.41). Team members' confidence was also not associated with secondary outcomes, except that teams with confident members had better values for composite (3.55 [interquartile range, IQR 3.00-3.82] vs. 3.18 [IQR 2.57-3.64], p = 0.024) and global (8 [7-9] vs. 8 [6-8], p = 0.029) scales measuring nontechnical team performance.ConclusionsTeam members' self-efficacy was not associated with most team-level competence metrics during simulated cardiac arrest resuscitation. These data suggest that self-efficacy should have a limited role for evaluation of resuscitation training programs and for initial certification and monitoring of individual resuscitation team members' competence.

Project description:Background. Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a challenge for emergency physicians, given the poor prognosis. In 2020, MIRACLE2, a new and easier to apply score, was established to predict the neurological outcome of OHCA. Objective. The aim of this study is to compare the discrimination of MIRACLE2 score with cardiac arrest hospital prognosis (CAHP) score for OHCA neurologic outcomes. Methods. This retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 2015 and December 2019. Adult patients (>17 years) with cardiac arrest who were brought to the hospital by an emergency medical service crew were included. Deaths due to trauma, burn, drowning, resuscitation not initiated due to pre-ordered “do not resuscitate” orders, and patients who did not achieve return of spontaneous circulation were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with Youden Index was performed to calculate optimal cut-off values for both scores. Results. Overall, 200 adult OHCA cases were analyzed. The threshold of the MIRACLE2 score for favorable neurologic outcomes was 5.5, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.70 (0.61−0.80, p < 0.001); the threshold of the CAHP score was 223.4, with an AUC of 0.77 (0.68−0.86, p < 0.001). On setting the MIRACLE2 score cut-off value, we documented 64.7% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI], 56.9−71.9%), 66.7.0% specificity (95% CI, 48.2−82.0%), 90.8% positive predictive value (PPV; 95% CI, 85.6−94.2%), and 27.2% negative predictive value (NPV; 95% CI, 21.4−33.9%). On establishing a CAHP cut-off value, we observed 68.2% sensitivity (95% CI, 60.2−75.5%), 80.6% specificity (95% CI, 62.5−92.6%), 94.6% PPV (95% CI, 88.6%−98.0%), and 33.8% NPV (95% CI, 23.2−45.7%) for unfavorable neurologic outcomes. Conclusions. The CAHP score demonstrated better discrimination than the MIRACLE2 score, affording superior sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV; however, the CAHP score remains relatively difficult to apply. Further studies are warranted to establish scores with better discrimination and ease of application.

Project description:ImportanceExtracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is expected to improve the neurological outcomes of patients with refractory cardiac arrest; however, it is invasive, expensive, and requires substantial human resources. The ability to predict neurological outcomes would assist in patient selection for ECPR.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a prediction model for neurological outcomes of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with shockable rhythm treated with ECPR.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study analyzed data from the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest registry, a multi-institutional nationwide cohort study that included 87 emergency departments in Japan. All adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and shockable rhythm who were treated with ECPR between June 2014 and December 2017 were included. Patients were randomly assigned to the development and validation cohorts based on the institutions. The analysis was conducted between November 2019 and August 2020.ExposuresAge (<65 years), time from call to hospital arrival (≤25 minutes), initial cardiac rhythm on hospital arrival (shockable), and initial pH value (≥7.0).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was 1-month survival with favorable neurological outcome, defined by Cerebral Performance Category 1 or 2. In the development cohort, a simple scoring system was developed to predict this outcome using a logistic regression model. The diagnostic ability and calibration of the scoring system were assessed in the validation cohort.ResultsA total of 916 patients were included, 458 in the development cohort (median [interquartile range {IQR}] age, 61 [47-69] years, 377 [82.3%] men) and 458 in the validation cohort (median [IQR] age, 60 [49-68] years; 393 [85.8%] men). The cohorts had the same proportion of favorable neurological outcome (57 patients [12.4%]). The prediction scoring system was developed, attributing a score of 1 for each clinical predictor. Patients were divided into 4 groups, corresponding to their scores on the prediction model, as follows: very low probability (score 0), low probability (score 1), middle probability (score 2), and high probability (score 3-4) of good neurological outcome. The mean predicted probabilities in the groups stratified by score were as follows: very low, 1.6% (95% CI, 1.6%-1.6%); low, 4.4% (95% CI, 4.2%-4.6%); middle, 12.5% (95% CI, 12.1%-12.8%); and high, 30.8% (95% CI, 29.1%-32.5%). In the validation cohort, the C statistic of the scoring system was 0.724 (95% CI, 0.652-0.786). The predicted probability was evaluated as well calibrated to the observed favorable outcome in both cohorts by visual assessment of the calibration plot.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, the scoring system had good discrimination and calibration performance to predict favorable neurological outcomes of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and shockable rhythm who were treated with ECPR.

Project description:ImportanceFrailty is associated with mortality following surgery and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) for in-hospital cardiac arrest. Despite the growing focus on frailty as a basis for preoperative risk stratification and concern that CPR in patients with frailty may border on futility, the association between frailty and outcomes following perioperative CPR is unknown.ObjectiveTo determine the association between frailty and outcomes following perioperative CPR.Design, setting, and participantsThis longitudinal cohort study of patients used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, including more than 700 participating hospitals in the US, from January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2020. Follow-up duration was 30 days. Patients 50 years or older undergoing noncardiac surgery who received CPR on postoperative day 0 were included; patients were excluded if data required to determine frailty, establish outcome, or perform multivariable analyses were missing. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2022, through January 30, 2023.ExposuresFrailty defined as Risk Analysis Index (RAI) of 40 or greater vs less than 40.Outcomes and measuresThirty-day mortality and nonhome discharge.ResultsAmong the 3149 patients included in the analysis, the median age was 71 (IQR, 63-79) years, 1709 (55.9%) were men, and 2117 (69.2%) were White. Mean (SD) RAI was 37.73 (6.18), and 792 patients (25.9%) had an RAI of 40 or greater, of whom 534 (67.4%) died within 30 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for race, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, sepsis, and emergency surgery demonstrated a positive association between frailty and mortality (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.35 [95% CI, 1.11-1.65]; P = .003). Spline regression analysis demonstrated steadily increasing probability of mortality and nonhome discharge with increasing RAI above 37 and 36, respectively. Association between frailty and mortality following CPR varied by procedure urgency (AOR for nonemergent procedures, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.23-1.97]; AOR for emergent procedures, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.68-1.37]; P = .03 for interaction). An RAI of 40 or greater was associated with increased odds of nonhome discharge compared with an RAI of less than 40 (AOR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.31-2.62]; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this cohort study suggest that although roughly 1 in 3 patients with an RAI of 40 or greater survived at least 30 days following perioperative CPR, higher frailty burden was associated with increased mortality and greater risk of nonhome discharge among survivors. Identifying patients who are undergoing surgery and have frailty may inform primary prevention strategies, guide shared decision-making regarding perioperative CPR, and promote goal-concordant surgical care.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team.

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development and validation of risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team.

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