HIV transmission from drug injectors to partners who do not inject, and beyond: modelling the potential for a generalized heterosexual epidemic in St. Petersburg, Russia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

HIV infection is prevalent among drug injectors in St. Petersburg and their non-injecting heterosexual partners (PIDUs). There are fears that sexual transmission of HIV from IDUs to PIDUs may portend a self-sustaining, heterosexual epidemic in Russia.

Methods

Our model combines a network model of sexual partnerships of IDUs and non-IDUs to represent sexual transmission of HIV and a deterministic model for parenteral transmission among IDUs. Behavioural parameters were obtained from a survey of St. Petersburg IDUs and their sexual partners. We based our model fits on two scenarios for PIDU prevalence in 2006 (5.6% and 15.1%, calculated excluding and including HCV co-infected PIDUs respectively) and compared predictions for the general population HIV prevalence.

SUBMITTER: Mills HL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4113725 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature