Project description:Fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the United States decreased by ∼11% between 2007 and 2013, from 6,023 to 5,377 Mt. This decline has been widely attributed to a shift from the use of coal to natural gas in US electricity production. However, the factors driving the decline have not been quantitatively evaluated; the role of natural gas in the decline therefore remains speculative. Here we analyse the factors affecting US emissions from 1997 to 2013. Before 2007, rising emissions were primarily driven by economic growth. After 2007, decreasing emissions were largely a result of economic recession with changes in fuel mix (for example, substitution of natural gas for coal) playing a comparatively minor role. Energy-climate policies may, therefore, be necessary to lock-in the recent emissions reductions and drive further decarbonization of the energy system as the US economy recovers and grows.
Project description:BackgroundInfluenza virus predictably causes an annual epidemic resulting in a considerable burden of illness in Australia. Children are disproportionately affected and can experience severe illness and complications, which occasionally result in death.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective descriptive study using data collated in the Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Intensive Care (ANZPIC) Registry of influenza-related intensive care unit (ICU) admissions over a 17-year period (1997-2013, inclusive) in children <16 years old. National laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications were used for comparison.ResultsBetween 1997 and 2013, a total of 704 influenza-related ICU admissions were recorded, at a rate of 6.2 per 1,000 all-cause ICU admissions. Age at admission ranged from 0 days and 15.9 years (median = 2.1 years), with 135 (19.2%) aged <6 months. Pneumonia/pneumonitis and bronchiolitis were the most common primary diagnoses among influenza-related admissions (21.9% and 13.6%, respectively). More than half of total cases (59.2%) were previously healthy (no co-morbidities recorded), and in the remainder, chronic lung disease (16.7%) and asthma (12.5%) were the most common co-morbidities recorded. Pathogen co-detection occurred in 24.7% of cases, most commonly with respiratory syncytial virus or a staphylococcal species. Median length of all ICU admissions was 3.2 days (range 2.0 hours- 107.4 days) and 361 (51.3%) admissions required invasive respiratory support for a median duration of 4.3 days (range 0.2 hours- 107.5 days). There were 27 deaths recorded, 14 (51.9%) in children without a recorded co-morbidity.ConclusionInfluenza causes a substantial number of ICU admissions in Australian children each year with the majority occurring in previously healthy children.
Project description:BackgroundThe burden of pneumonia continues to be substantial, particularly among the poorest in global society. We describe here the trends for UK pneumonia R&D investment and published outputs, and correlate with 2013 global mortality.MethodsData related to awards to UK institutions for pneumonia research from 1997 to 2013 were systematically sourced and categorised by disease area and type of science. Investment was compared to mortality figures in 2010 and 2013 for pneumonia, tuberculosis and influenza. Investment was also compared to publication data.ResultsOf all infectious disease research between 2011 and 2013 (£917.0 million), £28.8 million (3.1%) was for pneumonia. This was an absolute and proportionate increase from previous time periods. Translational pneumonia research (33.3%) received increased funding compared with 1997-2010 where funding was almost entirely preclinical (87.5%, here 30.9%), but high-burden areas such as paediatrics, elderly care and antimicrobial resistance received little investment. Annual investment remains volatile; publication temporal trends show a consistent increase. When comparing investment to global burden with a novel 'investment by mortality observed' metric, tuberculosis (£48.36) and influenza (£484.21) receive relatively more funding than pneumonia (£43.08), despite investment for pneumonia greatly increasing in 2013 compared to 2010 (£7.39). Limitations include a lack of private sector data and the need for careful interpretation of the comparisons with burden, plus categorisation is subjective.ConclusionsThere has been a welcome increase for pneumonia funding awarded to UK institutions in 2011-2013 compared with 1997-2010, along with increases for more translational research. Published outputs relating to pneumonia rose steadily from 1997 to 2013. Investment relative to mortality for pneumonia has increased, but it remains low compared to other respiratory infections and clear inequities remain. Analyses that measure investments in pneumonia can provide an insight into funding trends and research gaps.Research in contextPneumonia continues to be a high-burden illness around the globe. This paper shows that although research funding is increasing in the UK (between 1997 and 2013), it remains poorly funded compared to other important respiratory infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and influenza. Publications about pneumonia have been steadily increasing over time, indicating continuing academic and clinical interest in the topic. Though global mortality of pneumonia is declining, it should still be an area of high priority for funders, policymakers and researchers.
Project description:Exposure to cigarette coupons is associated with smoking initiation and likelihood of cigarette purchase among adolescents. Some adolescents who are exposed to cigarette coupons take a step further by choosing to save or collect these coupons, a further risk factor for cigarette smoking. This study examines historical trends and disparities in cigarette coupon saving among adolescents in the United States from 1997 to 2013. National samples of 10th and 12th grade students (n=129,111) were obtained from Monitoring the Future surveys in 1997-2013. Prevalence of lifetime and current cigarette coupon saving was estimated in each year in the overall adolescent population, and in race/ethnicity, parent education level, sex, and urban/rural subgroups. Prevalence of lifetime and current cigarette coupon saving was then estimated in each year based on smoking status. Prevalence of cigarette coupon saving has decreased dramatically among adolescents; only 1.2% reported currently saving coupons in 2013. However, disparities in cigarette coupon saving remain with prevalence higher among rural, White, and low parental education level students. Adolescent smokers continue to save coupons at high rates; 21.2% had ever saved coupons and 6.9% currently saved coupons as of 2013. Despite overall declines in adolescent cigarette coupon saving, existing sociodemographic disparities and the considerably high prevalence of coupon saving among adolescent smokers suggest that cigarette coupons remain a threat to smoking prevention among youth. Additional research is needed to further elucidate longitudinal associations between cigarette coupon saving and smoking initiation and maintenance among adolescents.
Project description:The epidemiology of invasive listeriosis in humans appears to be weakly characterized in Poland, the sixth most populous member state of the European Union. We obtained antimicrobial susceptibility data, PCR-serogroups and genotypic profiles for 344 invasive isolates of Listeria monocytogenes, collected between 1997 and 2013 in Poland. All isolates were susceptible to the 10 tested antimicrobials, except one that was resistant to tetracycline and minocycline and harbored the tet(M), tet(A) and tet(C) genes. Overall, no increasing MIC values were observed during the study period. Four PCR-serogroups were observed: IVb (55.8%), IIa (34.3%), IIb (8.1%) and IIc (1.8%). We identified clonal complexes (CCs) and epidemic clones (ECs) previously involved in outbreaks worldwide, with the most prevalent CCs/ECs being: CC6/ECII (32.6%), CC1/ECI (17.2%), CC8/ECV (6.1%) and CC2/ECIV (5.5%). The present study is the first extensive analysis of Polish L. monocytogenes isolates from invasive infections.
Project description:The impacts of anthropogenic contaminants on marine ecosystems are a concern worldwide. Anthropogenic activities can enrich trace elements in marine biota to concentrations that may negatively impact organism health. Exposure to elevated concentrations of trace elements is considered a contributing factor in marine mammal population declines. Hawai'i is an increasingly important geographic location for global monitoring, yet trace element concentrations have not been quantified in Hawaiian cetaceans, and there is little trace element data for Pacific cetaceans. This study measured trace elements (Cr, Mn, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Sr, Cd, Sn, Hg, and Pb) in liver of 16 species of cetaceans that stranded on U.S. Pacific Islands from 1997 to 2013, using high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS) (n = 31), and direct mercury analysis atomic absorption spectrometry (DMA-AAS) (n = 43). Concentration ranges (μg/g wet mass fraction) for non-essential trace elements, such as Cd (0.0031-58.93) and Hg (0.0062-1571.75) were much greater than essential trace elements, such as Mn (0.590-17.31) and Zn (14.72-245.38). Differences were found among age classes in Cu, Zn, Hg, and Se concentrations. The highest concentrations of Se, Cd, Sn, Hg, and Pb were found in one adult female false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens) at concentrations that are known to affect health in marine mammals. The results of this study establish initial trace element concentration ranges for Pacific cetaceans in the Hawaiian Islands region, provide insights into contaminant exposure of these marine mammals, and contribute to a greater understanding of anthropogenic impacts in the Pacific Ocean.
Project description:With the rapid global spread of West Nile virus (WNV) and the endemic state it has acquired in new geographical areas, we hereby bring a thorough serological investigation of WNV in horses in a longstanding endemic region, such as Israel. This study evaluates the environmental and demographic risk factors for WNV infection in horses and suggests possible factors associated with the transition from endemic to epidemic state. West Nile virus seroprevalence in horses in Israel was determined throughout a period of more than a decade, before (1997) and after (2002 and 2013) the massive West Nile fever outbreak in humans and horses in 2000. An increase in seroprevalence was observed, from 39% (113/290) in 1997 to 66.1% (547/827) in 2002 and 85.5% (153/179) in 2013, with persistent significantly higher seroprevalence in horses situated along the Great Rift Valley (GRV) area, the major birds' migration route in Israel. Demographic risk factors included age and breed of the horse. Significantly lower spring precipitation was observed during years with increased human incidence rate that occurred between 1997-2007. Hence, we suggest referring to Israel as two WNV distinct epidemiological regions; an endemic region along the birds' migration route (GRV) and the rest of the country which perhaps suffers from cyclic epidemics. In addition, weather conditions, such as periods of spring drought, might be associated with the transition from endemic state to epidemic state of WNV.