Stability, bifurcation and chaos analysis of vector-borne disease model with application to Rift Valley fever.

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates a RVF epidemic model by qualitative analysis and numerical simulations. Qualitative analysis have been used to explore the stability dynamics of the equilibrium points while visualization techniques such as bifurcation diagrams, Poincaré maps, maxima return maps and largest Lyapunov exponents are numerically computed to confirm further complexity of these dynamics induced by the seasonal forcing on the mosquitoes oviposition rates. The obtained results show that ordinary differential equation models with external forcing can have rich dynamic behaviour, ranging from bifurcation to strange attractors which may explain the observed fluctuations found in RVF empiric outbreak data, as well as the non deterministic nature of RVF inter-epidemic activities. Furthermore, th

SUBMITTER: Pedro SA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4182743 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature