Contact heterogeneity, rather than transmission efficiency, limits the emergence and spread of canine influenza virus.

ABSTRACT: Host-range shifts in influenza virus are a major risk factor for pandemics. A key question in the study of emerging zoonoses is how the evolution of transmission efficiency interacts with heterogeneity in contact patterns in the new host species, as this interplay influences disease dynamics and prospects for control. Here we use a synergistic mixture of models and data to tease apart the evolutionary and demographic processes controlling a host-range shift in equine H3N8-derived canine influenza virus (CIV). CIV has experienced 15 years of continuous transfer among dogs in the United States, but maintains a patchy distribution, characterized by sporadic short-lived outbreaks coupled with endemic hotspots in large animal shelters. We show that CIV has a high reproductive potential in these

SUBMITTER: Dalziel BD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4207809 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature