Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

ABSTRACT: One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent

SUBMITTER: Vincenzi S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4208378 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature