Estimating the potential impact of canine distemper virus on the Amur tiger population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia.

ABSTRACT: Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the

SUBMITTER: Gilbert M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4212977 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature