Incorporating incidence information within the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package framework: a study based on simulated incidence assay data.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The objective of this study is to extend the UNAIDS incidence estimation model, the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP), so that it can incorporate data from incidence assays.

Methods

We propose combining the likelihood of the incidence assay data with the likelihood of other data, in a manner that is consistent with the biomarker-based incidence estimator using incidence assay data. Two calibrating parameters specify the performance of the incidence assays: the false recent rate and the mean duration of recent infection. We then use synthetic data, based on prevalence data obtained from antenatal clinic surveillances, and in some cases household surveys, from 24 countries, to examine the impact of including incidence assay data, under circumstances whe

SUBMITTER: Bao L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4247275 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature