Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

ABSTRACT: Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and

SUBMITTER: MacLeod DA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4250912 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature