Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century.

ABSTRACT: The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources, ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorward MED margins by the arid cli

SUBMITTER: Alessandri A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4250915 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature