Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

ABSTRACT: A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinc

SUBMITTER: Caudron Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4277111 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature