Predicting time to threshold for initiating antiretroviral treatment to evaluate cost of treatment as prevention of human immunodeficiency virus.

ABSTRACT: The goal of this paper is to predict the additional amount of antiretroviral treatment that would be required to implement a policy of treating all HIV-infected people at time of detection of infection rather than at the time that their CD4 T-lymphocyte counts are observed to be below a threshold-the current standard of care. We describe a sampling-based inverse prediction method for predicting time from HIV infection to attainment of the CD4 threshold and apply it to a set of treatment-naive HIV-infected subjects in a village in Botswana who participated in a household survey that collected cross-sectional CD4 counts. The inferential target of interest is the population-level mean time to reaching CD4-based treatment threshold in this group of subjects. To address the challenges arising f

SUBMITTER: Lynch ML 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4302962 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature