The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already protect part of the risk population against new HPV infections.

Methods

We used STDSIM, an established stochastic microsimulation model, quantified to the Netherlands. We explored different assumptions regarding the natural history of HPV-16 and HPV-18, and estimated the transmission probabilities and durations of acquired immunity necessary to reproduce age-specific prevalence.

Results

A model without acquired immunity cannot reproduce the age-specific patterns of HPV. Also

SUBMITTER: Matthijsse SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4314063 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature