A score to predict short-term risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX).

ABSTRACT:

Background

There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year.

Methods

Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0-100 to predict an exacerbation within

SUBMITTER: Make BJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4315304 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature