Linear regression analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics predicts a large increase in demand for elective hand surgery in England.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

We integrated two factors, demographic population shifts and changes in prevalence of disease, to predict future trends in demand for hand surgery in England, to facilitate workforce planning.

Methods

We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data for Dupuytren's disease, carpal tunnel syndrome, cubital tunnel syndrome, and trigger finger from 1998 to 2011. Using linear regression, we estimated trends in both diagnosis and surgery until 2030. We integrated this regression with age specific population data from the Office for National Statistics in order to estimate how this will contribute to a change in workload over time.

Results

There has been a significant increase in both absolute numbers of diagnoses and surgery for all four conditions. Combined with

SUBMITTER: Bebbington E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4315884 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature