Mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia reveals minimal target profiles for improved vaccines and diagnostic assays.

ABSTRACT: Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a cattle disease that has hampered the development of the livestock sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, vaccination with a live vaccine strain is its recommended control measure although unofficial antimicrobial use is widely practiced. Here, modelling techniques are used to assess the potential impact of early elimination of infected cattle via accurate diagnosis on CBPP dynamics. A herd-level stochastic epidemiological model explicitly incorporating test sensitivity and specificity is developed. Interventions by annual vaccination, annual testing and elimination and a combination of both are implemented in a stepwise manner and their effectiveness compared by running 1000 simulations per intervention over ten years. The model predicts that

SUBMITTER: Ssematimba A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4323249 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature